Screenshots: Perak: A test on the wisdom of the people... and the Sultan's

I had the misfortune of foretelling something about Perak on May 13 last year. What I said took months, not days, to unfold.

As you know by now, the equation has changed in Perak politics, and it will change forever in the next few hours when Malaysia wakes up again to greet February 5, 2009.

For now, the Umno-dominated BN has the upper hand. What used to be in the favour of the Pakatan Rakyat coalition with a 31 vs. 28 equation on February 3, it's now officially 28 vs. 28 + 3, with the three defectors claiming a convenient Independent platform.

Seizing the fait accompli of the day, Najib declared that BN is ready to form the new Perak state government while the PR was trying to gain the royal consent to dissolve the 11-month old state assembly, and to seek fresh mandate through a state-wide election.

Sultan Azlan Shah, the former king of Malaysia, is now the proverbial "King Maker" as it's only he who can decide if BN's wishes is accomplished, or his subjects should go to poll again to determine the next state government.

To the rakyat, they have to get prepared to new political scenario with new shades of political representation.

Take a look at the figures.

Zero-sum game?

With one defector, the DAP is currently left with 17 state assemblymen. PKR, which lost two YBs who defected, is now made up of a 5-assemblymen team. Only PAS remains intact with 6 YBs.

Of what used to be a slim majority state government under Pakatan Rakyat, the 11-member Perak Exco consists of 6 Chinese (5 DAP. 1 PKR), 4 Malays (2 PAS, 2 PKR) and 1 Indian (DAP).

The Speaker and his Deputy are from DAP -- 1 Indian and 1 Chinese.

One the other hand, Perak BN survived GE2008 with 28 state assemblymen -- 27 Umno and 1 from MCA. Gerakan and MIC were annihilated.

Now with 3 defectors from PR and its own defector who switched camp to PKR and make a swift comeback in two short weeks, Perak BN has now 31 YBs -- 29 Umno Malays, and 2 Chinese, if you look at the typical BN politics from its race-based perspective.

Should BN take control of the Perak state government in the next few hours, the composition of its exco will be absolutely Umno-dominated with a maximum of only 2 non-Malay state ministers. No Indian.

The Sultan will have to consider this crucial factor as the Perak electorate had crossed the political rubicon only months ago, where absolute dominance of Umno in the state exco -- hence the state's purse-strings -- was given a resounding rejection.

The only consolation for the Sultan is that, whatever way he so decides, he has no political masters to report to. Unlike the politicians, he doesn't have to face the voters in the next general election while the people-funded allowances payable to the royal family, as enshrined in the Constitution, will remain intact.

Do MCA, MIC and Gerakan want it?

However, the MCA, Gerakan and MIC must collectively decide if they so condone the new, politically destructive scenario that celebrates a party-hopping culture -- irrespective of the the quality of the YBs -- that offers Umno the ultimate controlling stake that dictates the future of Perak. If they decide against the wishes of the voters, they may face humiliating annihilation in GE2012. Because the people will be angry if they consent to absolute Umno dominance.

How will the Sultan, who will soon celebrate the silver anniversary as the state's ruler, decide? His son, Raja Nazrin the crown prince, has prophetically said his eloquent piece on the outset of the political turmoil that just turned awry hours ago, that the Royal Family "must remain neutral to ensure justice for people".

Guan Eng used to comment on the decadence in governance in Penang before GE2008, that devils romp because good men do nothing.

I fervently believe the Sultan of Perak is a good man.

And I fervently believe, too, that Guan Eng will appreciate the fact that DAP is the biggest loser once Perak government changes hands.

DAP not good enough for her (Hee)... Image downloaded from Kwong Wah Yit Poh

What can Perak people do? Bite the bullet, fight another day.

Comments

And if cost of a re-election following a dissolution of parliament is going to be a factor, which factor Najib will surely use to try to sway the thinking of the Sultan, it would be wise for the Sultan to realise that already UMNO has incurred a cost doing this stunt to effect a crossover. Perak will now have to pay it back. Pay it back, Perak will, over the remaining four years on a multiple hopefully not crossing double digits.

Posted by: Observer | February 5, 2009 12:40 AM

Can the speaker be removed? Else, it could be interesting to see a DAP speaker in a BN-led DUN Perak~

Posted by: bentoh | February 5, 2009 12:49 AM

Wait a minute Najib!

http://romerz.blogspot.com/2009/02/wait-minute-najib.html

Posted by: romerz | February 5, 2009 01:08 AM

BN would not be having a pc even before knowing what's the outcome of Nizar and the Sultan's meeting unless they knew exactly what's its going to be.

Najib wants more mud in face? I don't ***** so. Let's pic the finest Pakatan candidates for next election and make all to declare unconditional alliance to Pakatan or they resign.

Posted by: LittleBird | February 5, 2009 06:19 AM

Bernama, the national news agency of Malaysia loudly proclaimed words like "PR Government Collapses, BN Returns To Power In Perak"

But is that true?

True, the BN now lays claim to the 4 kataks now, but the validity of the two undated resignation letters has not been decided on yet. It may end up as a matter for the courts to rule on.

And Sultan Azlan has been presented with a request to dissolve the state assembly. And he has also not made his decision yet.

So was that fair and credible reporting by Bernama? Or seriously faulted biased reporting which even gossip tabloids should be ashamed of?

Having got that off my chest, I concur with the many who opine that the best way to resolve the issue is to hold state wide polls to hear the electorate's voice again. Let the people chose their Wakil Rakyat.

But will BN, premature claims of victory notwithstanding, be honorable enough to want to hear the rakyat?

Lest we forget, the BN, or rather Umno, is planning to hand over the PM's post this March via the Umno GA, during which a couple of thousand Umno delegates will decide on who their next party president will be.

And Abdullah Badawi has already agreed to hand over the premiership to Najib with the proviso that Najib wins the party presidency.

So we have a politial party and its couple on thousand delegates happily controlling the post of the leader of Malaysia.

What about the "small" matter of the mandate of 25 million Malaysians?

With such a modus operandi, does it surprise anyone to hear loud claims of victory when the legality of the undated resignation letters have not been settled, and Sultan Azlan Shah has not decided if the state assembly is to be dissolved?

Posted by: Leithaisor | February 5, 2009 07:26 AM

What about those individual PERSONAL UNDERTAKING of each of the PR adun supposedly given to the Sultan before the Sultan granted PR to form the Perak Government? Shouldn't the Sultan demand the 3 ex-PR adun to resign!!! How can the Sultan be expect to honour the 3 who now claimed to be independant? I think not only the Sultan should reject BN request, the Sultan should also publicly reprimand the 3 & demand them to resign in SHAME!!!

Posted by: aPanaMa | February 5, 2009 08:40 AM

perhaps this whole 'frog' thing is good for the nation in the long run, come next GE, BN will be annihilated too.

I knew the PKR guy is too good too be true when he hopped from UMNO to PKR. amazingly PAS people remains very loyal to the party, perhaps God principle is stronger than any other principle.

Hopefully the state assembly will be dissolved, can't wait to vote for DAP again! and of course to have the same PAS MB again.

Posted by: calvin_fernandez | February 5, 2009 09:34 AM

Stories mentioned that Hee defected due to she has not received enough benefits and not received a Toyota Camry as part iof the packages that arrived if you are an exco.

How true is it, Jeff?

Posted by: skeat | February 5, 2009 10:54 AM

A test on the wisdom of the people and the Sultan's?

Heef Ooi, Hi.

I do not think the topic was right, why should it is a test of wisdom? Of the Sultan? Perak royalty exists for 1,300 years, what wisdom if history with that long cannot accumulate and it needs the wisdom, which you and I combine could not even equate the time of the royality's existence and wisdom in this region.

Perhaps I read your note and misplaced some verbs, or... the whole thing is simple DAP is surely the big loser here, and but I am happy with the situation which may bring backs the tranquility and peace of mind to me and my family when I drive back to Batu Gajah.

Posted by: Sr Sheik Ali Omar | February 5, 2009 09:24 PM

Coup D'etat.

http://romerz.blogspot.com/2009/02/coup-detat.html

Posted by: romerz | February 5, 2009 10:51 PM

This is definitely an injustice towards the voters. When they voted a MP in, they voted for them and their party alliance.

It's not up for the MP to switch without consulting the voters.

Democracy is not for everybody, said Lee Kuan Yew once. Maybe this is why...

Posted by: sabtan | February 6, 2009 11:46 AM

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