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Ee chiak lu, lu pun um chai. What's the verdict?

SCENARIO 1. One emerging hypothesis I was given says that, should Tsu Koon go federal, Chia will be the CM-designate, and Dr Teng will move federal for a deputy minister's post as he apparently suffered the perception that, at 62, he could not provide Penang a rejuvenated leadership for the next ten years.

Should Tsu Koon and Dr Teng both get elected into Parliament, the former will be a full minister, taking over from Keng Yaik who will retire, and Dr Teng will be made a deputy minister. potentially occupying the quota currently filled by Chia.

However, Perak state exco Chang Ko Youn, another Gerakan VP, is slated to occupy the Bruas parliamentary seat currently held by Keng Yaik. Should he be elected into Parliament, he will also be a candidate for a deputy minister's post. Should that happen, he has to displace and replace either of the two incumbent deputy ministers, namely Mah Siew Keong and Ng Lip Yong, assuming the Gerakan quota in the administration does not get enlarged. In that case, analysts say Ng, in his mid 50's, is the likely dispensable guy as Mah is a rising star and the incumbent youth chief.

It is also speculated that, with Chia as the CM-designate, he would need three seniors to fill the Gerakan's quota for state excos.

Notably, Lee Kah Choon, current Jelutung MP and parliamentary secretary in the Ministry of Health, will be slated for the Machang Bubuk state seat, currently occupied by Dr Toh Kin Woon, the "Conscience of Gerakan" who is retiring. It is being bandied about by the pundits that Kah Choon will be made a state exco after winning the safe seat and be made a state exco, and groomed to take over from Chia over time.

Tsu Koon, as the party's acting president, will likely cast his influence to keep exco Teng Chang Yeow in the state administration as his "eyes and ears" to remote-control and monitor Chia's potential extension of influence in Penang. However, the jury is still out for the third exco, though many say Chia will have his say and field in his staunch ally.

On the other hand, there are murmurings among Gerakan observers who said Tsu Koon may run out of a safe parliament seat. He may even have to consider running in Simpang Renggam, Johor, a BN fortress now occupied by Kerk Choo Thing, who vanquished in his fight for Gerakan presidency against Keng Yaik in 2005.

Batu Kawan, the new growth centre on Seberang Jaya where PM Abdullah Badawi's corporate ally Patrick Lim is having hayday, used to be spotted as a favourable seat for Tsu Koon. However, post-Hindraf rally, the 22.8% Indian voters' ward may turn out to be a poison lily for him, observers said.

SCENARIO 2. The opposing hypothesis says that, Tsu Koon will stay as the CM, while Chia remains to defend his Bukit Bendera parliamentary seat, which is considered a "personal-to holder" constituency to him as a three-term MP.

Will Chia be made a full minister, and allow Gerakan to repeat the days of a lame minister in Paul Leong in the 1980's -- where the party president lost grip over national politics and became out-manoeuvred in Barisan Nasional's race-based politics? Besides, it is also an anxiety-filled guess as Perak's Chang, a loyal protege to Keng Yaik, is also seen as a dark horse for the sole minister's post in the Putrajaya administration, and Chia might not get the cake and eat it.

That said, the biggest dilemma for Tsu Koon's staying put as CM in Penang. After leading Penang for four terms since 1990, he is seen as image-fatigued. Joceline Tan described him as "not a huge liability but neither is he a glowing asset" for Gerakan in Penang.

Joceline added: "The former academic was only 41 when he catapulted into the top office in 1990 but after four terms, he is seen as a rather 'tired leader' and he is sitting on a depleting reservoir of goodwill."

On the other hand, Khoo Kay Peng, the director at Gerakan-sponsored Sedar Institute, has this to say of Tsu Koon:

“He does not have charisma or the political street-smartness that is so crucial in politics. But he has stayed clean and is respected for his scholarship and diligence. There's no denying he has the brains but he seems to lack a certain toughness to deal with internal politicking in the Barisan Nasional.”

"All that talk about Dr Koh running the party and remaining as Chief Minister while someone else takes the Minister's job is so out-dated. It doesn't work in today's politics,” Khoo added.

With that, Joceline concluded: "His staying on will not adversely affect the Barisan's chances but it will also not provide the sort of oomph that the coalition needs in the face of an opposition wind."

That said, Joceline also quoted Chia as saying: “It will be a tough one for the Barisan. I don't see us repeating the 2004 performance. That was like reaching Mount Everest for us."