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AirAsia: Excessive speculative hedging on fuel price?
A 16% slide in share price... and the skirt gets shorter

This could be to the chagrin of Umno mullahs in the Parliament who saw "tunnel" in tight skirts.

According to Guang Ming Daily yesterday, AirAsia may change the uniform for its female flight attendants, some versions only to get shorter from the knee upwards.

AirAsia-Uniform_080113.JPG

But the damning news on AirAsia was about its finances, as has been carried by Business Times Singapore, January 12.

Quoting Bloomberg Television, the business sheet said AirAsia will stop making bets on the price of oil, after incorrect forecasts contributed to a 16% slide in its share price over the last month.

Excessive speculative hedging?

AirAsia chief executive Tony Fernandes was quoted as saying in the Bloomberg interview that 'we took a bet that oil won't go above US$90 a barrel and it has and it's staying there.'

I must say in financial term that the 'bet', where a short call option was involved and has gone astray in jarring variance, is only more truly depicted as speculative hedging despite the fact the shortfall can be mitigated with alternatives like a long call option -- which principally retains the speculative risks.

As it has come to pass, crude oil rose to a record US$100 a barrel earlier this month instead of falling as AirAsia had predicted, and locked in at US$82.60 per barrel.

If the price of oil remains at that level, AirAsia's earnings could fall by US$2.6 million a month because of speculative hedging, according to Christopher Eng, an analyst at OSK Research in Kuala Lumpur.

AirAsia_OSK_080109.jpg

'There has been significant selling from AirAsia's foreign shareholders,' Eng wrote in a January 9 report. The drop is 'related to AirAsia's fuel-hedging policy, which some parties considered excessively speculative', he added.

Fidelity International cut its stake by 9.8 million shares as of Dec 24, according to Bloomberg data.

'Tune Airports'?

Last year, some influential parties from Kuala Lumpur have wrongly asked Koh Tsu Koon -- who has no power and jurisdiction over national air transport matters -- to grant an approval to build and own a low cost carrier terminal in Penang via LC Airfied Sdn Bhd, and the project went kaput as the land proposed has now been utilised for other purposes by the federal authority.

Is Fernandes still trying to get to own airports while Abdullah is at the helm of this country?

Perhaps, we should go ask Thaksin about Thai AirAsia, and then go ask the Lee Dynasty why it had behaved differently.

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Comments

If the oil stay US$100 per barrel till Jun 2008, not just AirAsia in deep sh*t trouble, everybody will be hit hard.

sex sells.... that's why they shorten the skirts... maybe because their shares shrink 17%... push the panic button... hehehe

This sex appeal method was even critisized by Donald Trump in the apprentice when some contestants tried to use it in their tasks...

People buy options for either of 2 reasons :
1. Hedge the cost of the underlying deliverables (in this case, crude) so your business stays predictable
2. Make speculative profit from the market volatily.

When greed comes in, the 1st group will slowly become the 2nd.

Even if we put the fuel price out of the question, there are still a lot of uncertainity on airasia's profitability.

If you look at airasia's financial report carefully, you will notice that they don't really earn that much (i mean profits, not revenues). Majority of their 2007 income are generated by the 'tricky' accounting items like deferred taxation, interest rate swaps, exchange gain(on their dollar-based borrowings) and by not provisioning on the losses on exchange contracts and associate companies (thai/indonesia airasia).

In conclusion, they have been 'flying' well because they have done some good bets, and not because they have more passengers.

Hedging for fuel may be important to cover your needs for the future.
However if the hedging was excessive then the whole company can become unstuck.

For instance, if the company only uses 100 tons of fuel each month, but starts trading in 1000 tons for each month, then the company is acting like you or I going up to Gentings.

Airasia bet wrongly that the price of oil will drop. And because of that, the girls will be forced to wear shorter skirts to save money.

Why not make their men wear shorts? like in the US/australia/UK during the summer?

No ifs and buts. If you buy a call option, at least you can be considered hedging. But when you sell a call option, then you are really speculating. No two ways about it. Especially when you business is the airline industry and not the oil industry.

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