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Ijok result: Does it mean a thing?

The BN has won the Ijok by-election with a bigger majority: 1,850 compared to 1,649 achieved in 2004 general election -- an increase of 201 votes.

Parthiban_0026.jpg
K. Parthiban, BN's gift to development-bypassed Ijok... LensaPress photo by Jeff Ooi

Interestingly, both BN and KeADILan have increased their vote tally by around 500 votes respectively. This could partly be due to the higher voter turnout of 83.08% or 10,196 voters out of 12,272 on the electoral roll, a record high in by-election history. There was also no spoiler in the form of independent candidates.

By popular votes, the BN garnered 58.6% (5,884 votes) while PKR obtained 40.1% (4,034 votes).

However, looking into each of the balloting districts, new dynamics have cropped up.

Let's take a look at the poll results recorded in the 2004 general election and the one captured today:

SUNGAI DARAH
2004: BN 629; KeADILan 144
2007: BN 730; KeADILan 192

BATANG BERJUNTAI
2004: BN 1,447; KeADILAN 658
2007: BN 1,486; KeADILan 979

2007: BN 1,025; KeADILan 641 (Berjuntai Bestari Utara)
2007: BN 461; KeADILan 338 (Berjuntai Bestari Selatan)

JAYA SETIA
2004: BN 417; KeADILAN 458
2007: BN 618; KeADILan 327

BUKIT BADONG
2004: BN 609; KeADILAN 868
2007: BN 838; KeADILan 826

KAMPUNG IJOK
2004: BN 280; KeADILAN 547
2007: BN 376; KeADILan 492

PEKAN IJOK
2004: BN 761; KeADILAN 306
2007: BN 605; KeADILan 624

SIMPANG IJOK
2004: BN 466; KeADILAN 472
2007: BN 529; KeADILan 490

TUAN MEE
2004: BN 594; KeADILAN 116
2007: BN 665; KeADILan 145

On the surface, the 2007 results indicate that:

  1. KeADILAN has retreated in its 2004 Malay stronghold areas in Jaya Setia, Bukit Badong and Kampung Ijok

  2. KeADILan has failed to penetrate BN's Malay/Indian stronghold in Sungai Darah

  3. KeADILan has failed to penetrate BN's Indian stronghold in Tuan Mee

However, BN's performance in its 2004 Indian/Chinese stronghold in Batang Berjuntai has somewhat sent out some interesting signals.

The Batang Berjuntai polling district has since been split into two for the 2007 by-election, namely Berjuntai Bestaru Utara (a 51.4% Indian-majority area with 2,236 Indian voters and 31.1% or 1,142 Chinese voters) and Berjuntai Bestaru (a 45.8% Chinese-majority area with 534 Chinese voters and 30.6% or 384 Indian voters).

In today's results, Batang Berjuntai, with Berjuntai Bestari Utara and Selatan read together, the indication is that BN has retreated on a higher voter turnout, returning BN 1,486 compared to 2004's 1,447. In contrast, KeADILAN has improved to 979 compared with 2004's 658 votes.

Looking at the general trend in Ijok 2007 where BN has significantly eroded KeADILan's stronghold in the Malay-dominant areas, the swing has apparently come from the Chinese basket of votes, notably from the Chinese-dominant Berjuntai Bestari Selatan. Voter turnout in this polling district was the lowest among the nine, at 68.6%.

Today, voters' apathy in Berjuntai Bestari Selatan gave BN a return of 461 while KeADILan trailed in with 338 votes in its basket.

Polarised: Chinese support eroded; Malays swing towards BN

In Pekan Ijok, the polling district with the highest concentration of Chinese voters at 61.7% (or 958 Chinese voters), BN lost to KeADILan with 605 votes compared with the Opposition's 624 votes.

At a glance, the two Chinese-dominant polling districts -- Berjuntai Bestari Selatan and Pekan Ijok - have voted against the ruling party in unison.

Do today's results indicate that the Indians have chosen to remain as hardcore MIC supporters, while the Malays, even in PAS/KeADILan strongholds, have all taken in to money politics? Notably, the initial resistance from the Kuala Selangor Umno division against an Indian candidate had visibly vaporised as money were pouring in by the millions in the constituency that was bypassed in development over the last few decades.

One thing appears to be indisputable: The Chinese are voting against the government.

The anti-Government sentiments among the Chinese constituents reflected in the Ijok by-election results will pose a major headache for MCA leaders to answer to their BN boss:

Despite the RM36 million by-election goodies thrown in, why the inconsistency in the the Chinese community's voting pattern just within two weeks after a walkover victory in Machap?

In contrast, Gerakan can take it a little easy as it has chosen a multiracial stance in its political philosophy, and secondly, it has little impact in Ijok with its marginal political presence at the local level. The fact that Gerakan acting president Koh Tsu Koon had to adjourn to MCA's operations room to greet the Prime Minister during his 11th-hour visit to Ijok speaks volume of realpolitik on the the ground.

Suffice to say, if Ijok is a win for Abdullah Badawi, it then must be an equally big headache for him to fathom why Ijok's Chinese voters revolted so angrily against his administration?

Is this a single swallow that makes a spring about the disquiet among the Chinese constituents? God knows.

In reality, the Chinese community in Ijok can make no distinction between having an Indian or a Malay as their elected representative if race-based politics were allowed to supersede all else. That stark reality had helped them cast vote to truly reflect their inner voices on how the country is being run.

That's the the impact a double-edged keris when you play divide-and-rule, race-based politics. The dagger cuts both-ways. Whether it was Najib or Anwar who was the bigger devil that caused the 1987 racial tension over Chinese education issues that later developed into Operasi Lalang -- a corpse raised incessantly towards the last laps of campaigning in Ijok by no less a personality than Najib and MCA leaders, and rebutted by DAP and KeADILan -- was evidently no longer relevant to the realpolitik faced by the vote-holders.

The way they repulsed and rebelled at the ballot box today had landed the target audience with a big thud. It warrants acute attention as the next general election draws nearer. The signal is none other than a new form of polarisation coming to a crescendo. And there is no quick fix in sight.

FAMOUS LAST WORDS

April 22, Screenshots declared that It's very hard for K Parthiban not to win, quoting reasons.

April 23, after visiting the Chinese-dominated Pekan Ijok, Screenshots declared that it detected a subtle swing in voters' moods, quoting visible contradiction of national-local politics..

Screenshots never did retract its on-site assessment since the full-day visit last Sunday. Electorates in ijok had already made up their minds over the last three years.

In politics, winning is everything when it comes to elections. In Ijok, winning may be skin-deep if the undercurrents of voter sentiments gave way to the euphoria of crushing the Opposition at the ballot box.

Khalid Ibrahim could pave the way to install an alternative menteri besar for Selangor if he can muscle a team of credible candidates together come the next GE. Nobody can deny Khalid is a menteri besar material despite his age.

Meanwhile, congratulations to the Ijok folks. You are the real winners! You were given what you have missed out since 1964. Or to borrow words from S. Samy Vellu: "Ten years of development in 10 days!"

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Comments

I am sad for the folks in Ijok. I am sad that they have not chosen wisely despite the things they have seen. So disappointing.....

i feel so sad that this politics gone so dirty what has happened to our lovely country! is winning at all cost so important? more important than our citizens life, needs and wants? this is no longer the Malaysia I know off…. no wonder so many packed their bags and left cause no eye see already!

Well..what can I say Jeff? Some of the local folks never seemed to learn from past history. Nevertheless, it is heartening to see (based on the said analysis) the subtle shift in votes amongst the registered voters in 2 of the Chinese majority based districts.

At the very least, such small waves of change indicated initial signals to the present government for the urgent need of more transperancy in local governance, and hopefully, to the rest of the nation in bringing about a true Malaysian entity.


If it means anything, in my opinion it means that people vote for whoever that could show them the money. Who can blame them? The millions offered by the government are very useful for them.

Money politics? People either do not care or just don't think they can do anything about it. The opposition really need to come up with something great if they really want to succeed in the next general election.

winning is indeed everything. look at how the reported BN hooligans got deployed to intimidate the oppositions and the voters? i can't wait for the broadband era in malaysia, if we ever come to that. bcos when everyone has internet connection, people will start to see the other side of the politicians and even get reminded of what the politicians have done in the past. perhaps the nationwide internet era will come in the next 50 years, when the whole govt is rotten to the core and the country is beyond repair. the future is bleak. my fellow malaysians, if u want to safe your future generations, pls look for greener pastures and start making small steps (otherwise u may not get there) for the big journey. i am a normal layman from one of the minority ethnics in malaysia. since the day we were born, we are left to fend for ourselves as the govt will not help us (unless we r well connected). so what is the difference now? we will continue to strive for survival - elsewhere...

Good Analysis, Jeff.

Anyway as someone said a lost is a lost. I strongly urge PKR forget about the dispute, you know very well it is just waste of time and money.Why not recoup yourself and prepare for the WAR to come.

As for the BN, if all the allegations of phantom votes, money politics are true, then they should have a bigger headache. Deep in themselves that they know they won because of uneven playing fields. Crack your head now, how are you going to raise enough fund for the next GE. Can I say the amount of money poured into the IJOK by election will well be above RM50 million. Now, KJ start cracking your head how to allocate RM50 to each seat come next GE, else you will get into deep shit.

OK. Good luck to IJOKian, you shall have SAMY around with you for the next 3 months, you can ask what you want. Just don't be shocked when you see toyol walking down your town frequently, you asked for it.

Another angle why Malay voters swing back to BN was the conspiracy theory between Anwar and KJ. Anwar need to be back to UMNO for his political future. However the obstacle is Najib. Najib need to be evaporated for Anwar to make way for him to comeback to UMNO. So Ijok was the field for Anwar to kick Najib out. This is evidence by the persistence of the Alantuya and the Sukhoi jet deals on Najib.

Anwar is not interested to raise those valid issues that Tun M raises against the Government and PM Badawi but choose to attack Najib personally. What kind of opposition is this, it's more for Anwar self interest only! And Anwar has been strategic enough so far, that he is not PKR member, merely advisor only:)

Remember few days ago, Tun M ask Ijok voters to vote intelligently!

Well, it is almost impossible to change those kampung 3rd world mindset.

moo_t: I don't think it's fair to demean the Ijokians like that. Consider the fact that their district is one of the poorest in Malaysia, and when you don't have much to begin with, it doesn't take a lot to make you happy.

I would imagine that bread and butter issues would have a higher priority than justice, fairness, and democratic ideals, and when someone hands you the bread and butter, tars your forsaken roads, gives you cash in hand, promises you the world and paints the opposition candidate as a money-grabbing big shot who knows nothing of the plight of the poor, and promises you the world, the Ijok voter may find it hard to find his conscience.

The Ijokian maybe the winner for NOW and they deserve all the development that has been channeled over the last few weeks.

However, the most important question moving forward for the Ijokian to ponder on is - will the flow of development continues or it is the end of the "show" and back to reality now - knowing well that they have made their choise when the windows of opportunities is being presented to them. The window has now closed and the decision has been made.

However, remember, that the future development of the area is dependable on you and how you will like to shape it.

Good luck.

Ijok result. Does it mean a thing?

YEs it sure meant a heck alot.

It shows that by using force and instilling fear and by cheating, one can win and it does work. But the best of all, what can YOU DO ABOUT IT?

All will be back to normal tomorrow and forgotten. Till the next election.

WOW, RM100 Million for the people of IJOK..... now that's a good reason to wish your MP dead.

The result. What does it mean?
There are irregularities, evidence of fraud, intimidation, bribery and cheating by Barisan Nasional and the high voter turnout was "extremely suspect”. Keadilan has now rejected the poll results and calling the bitterly fought by-election an insult to democracy. "This is not a defeat for our party. This is an insult to our democratic system," Keadilan said in a statement.

Another aspect not highlighted is the dumb EC Secretary stating that it is an offense not to return the ballot papers and on the next breath he said: “The EC is unable to do anything. The booth to mark the ballot paper is a private place. “If the voter keeps the ballot paper as a souvenir, there is nothing we can do”. So in the Ijok by-election, we have the biggest number of unreturned ballot papers - 143 people did NOT deposit back the papers in the ballot boxes. This is indeed alarming. If blank ballot papers can be smuggled out, unnoticed, the results can be manipulated. Is 143 a tip of the ice-berg? Are these kept as "alteration votes" just in case there was a close tie and a recount is needed? How many of these blanks were bought over and at what price? PKR should make some noise on this matter and charge the EC for such a negligence (in not ensuring after the ballots paper are marked, are properly INSERTED in the boxes provided) and have the Ijok by-election declared “null & void” and have another round of “Ijok” and another RM100 million from BN. More details at:
http://powerpresent.blogspot.com/2007/04/more-pics-ijok-video-khairy-jamaluddin.html
on the SIL nearly being whacked and police starting probes on the 20 reports (including the attack on Paul hopefully) and the 30 Opposition Uni students to face action

If you've been poor and out for a long time and someone comes along and promises plenty, it is natural to accept it without question.

Yet the cost of not asking questions is high.

Why didn't the government help the folks of Ijok and other such places long before the election? Did the government know and choose to ignore their plight until it served them to make changes for the entry ticket of a seat?

If this becomes the modus operandi of Barisan Nasional - holding voters to ransom by bribing them with funds in order to win seats - will the nation not suffer in the long run when winning seats lead to mis-governance and lackeyism that harm the very welfare of folks like those from Ijok?

If it continues more insidiously, won't the cost of everything - from governance to doing business to maintaining bad policies - affect national competitiveness making it less possible in the future to dispense funds when they dry up?

The BN knows the grassroots can't ask these questions; that's why the BN will continue to use financial muscle to shoe-in wins in the next GE. The grassroots don't ask where the money comes from. They cannot connect how a few million to them, seen as large to them in their plight of poverty, is paltry compared to the five hundred and thirty eight million to provide "support and coordination services" for 127 submariners for six years, at fifty euros a day, plus lodging and travelling allowances, inclusive of 'costs to coordinate tender document submission'.

An insult not just on the intelligence of the people of Malaysia, but also to nottingham university.

Opposition members should take this event to review their strategy. BN will repeat the use of peoples' money to seduce their better judgement.

And those mat rempits insult malay culture. Or what was remembered in those halycon days when common sense and integrity prevailed.

Here's another angle of opinion, "Common people are also guilty of accepting the 'Bribery' syndrome." which is prevailing in this land. So the lamentation to the other party should ceased as we are the same. Money is the root of all evil if remained in the mind.

What Ijok shows is that PKR is an UMNO splinter group. As such, the strategy is almost the same and the violence is an extension of PKR's heritage from UMNO.

The 2 are the same..and the one thing that differentiates them is Anwar Ibrahim.

Why Anwar choose to attack Najib personally is questionable. Anwar should stick to the basic needs of Ijokians not to drag the court case, his personal battle to the simplistic minds and needs of Ijok.

PKR should leave the personal bettlefield at home...

Till then...G'nite M'sia...wherever u are...

Why judge the Ijokians morally? If they have voted differently, will any of the so-po folks go back to help them with hard cash instead of giving 'words of comfort and gratitude', or will they just become the 'forgottens'? Except for so-po folks, I noticed that majorities don't even bother about the outcomes. Jeff's caption 'Does its mean a thing?' is right...unless BN replicates the formula used to win by-elections, they are still 'unsure' on the voting trend of the populace in the coming General Election. What we learned is 'Big Money Works', but do they have enough cash to win everybody during the GE? The poorer politicians in BN fold may even be fretting now. BN sets a tough precedence on 'how to win'; even for themselves to follow.

anwar started the vote against keadilan by chararter assasination - against najib.
He should have stayed clear of these childish pranks and instead focus on the parties core values and intended policies. he should have said things like
a) reduction in car import tax
b) reduction or abolishment of tolls
c) review IPP's
d) Abolishment of corporate tax(too bad no rich folks in ijok)
e) All malaysian will be taken care of by the government, if they are terminally ill. (neglected by present government)
etc etc ....
Instead he went for the jugular vein and rant on and on about Monggolians. We do not care if najib is involved or not. the court and investigating officer will deal with those things apart from God. We want to know your policies and without knowing what policies the oppostion have, we don not really know what kind of people we are voting into office.
Indeed all oppostion parties do not have these policies in writing. They rant on and on about corruption. We need creative opposition parties, not some kind of stale rhetorics.

I spent 2 whole days campaigning in Ijok the past week, and the heartening thing was that the mood on the ground was indicating support for PKR. Today as we get more feedback from Ijok, the people of Ijok are stunned that BN won,,,or at least those that have communicated with us[PKR's votes have gone up in almost every voting district except 2]. It is sad.

It is even more sad when BN started to party at 3pm in the afternoon even before the voting had closed for the day!! What does that tell you ? How were they so bloody sure they would win if everyone said this election was too close to call.

At this point in time, i don't have enough proof, but i'm willing to take a wager that if not for the "Hantus" and "phantoms"... PKR might have won Ijok, or at the very least lost it by a tiny majority!!

BN can do this in a by-election, where they can focus all their resources on one seat. Come GE, can they do it? The fight in the GE will be more even but still BN will have an upper hand but nothing like a by-election.

The mood of the country is the Chinese and some Indians are very frustrated cos they are made like 3rd class citizen and urban Malays are sick of all the corruption etc.Sabah and Sarawakians are unhappy as well. All these will show up in the next GE especially in urban areas. Pak Lah not able to deliver on his 2004 manifesto and bungling by his XXXL cabinet and all the cost increase will come to haunt them.

sydput,

curruption is the mother of all evil, all the list you give is chained process from corrupt gov.

a) reduction in car import tax - this just to protect corrupt proton deals

b) reduction or abolishment of tolls - no way umno will give away their golden bowl, do you know all the concession company is umno proxy?

c) review IPP's - same as above

d) Abolishment of corporate tax(too bad no rich folks in ijok) - why on earth you want to do this? after all the resources been robbed by cronies, now you want them to pay less taxes.

e) All malaysian will be taken care of by the government, if they are terminally ill. (neglected by present government) - how you want to do this if one source like high corporate tax being reduced? btw, do you know that in kelantan all senior citizen eligible of takaful scheme regardless your race/party? of course you dont know since you hate pas gov

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