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What powered the current bull run? Will it sustain?

UPDATED VERSION. What powered the bull run that drove up KLCI to 1240 points?

According to MIMB Investment Bank, which was quoted by Oriental Daily News, it's due to substantial amount of hedge funds getting into the Malaysian stock market. Quote:

These hedge funds usually borrowed money from Japan, which offers exceptionally low interests. They had the Japanese Yen converted into ringgit, and then bought into the ringgit-based counters.

As a result, when the ringgit strengthens, and when the stock market goes up, these hedge funds will enjoy double gain.

Now, don't ask me if the current bull run can sustain.

But economic theories generally remind us that, in scenario like this, the situation hinges on whether the Japanese Yen will strengthen, and how soon.

If the Japanese Yen goes up against the ringgit, the hedge funds which bought into Malaysian stocks will start to lose money. The faster the Japanese Yen goes up, the faster will these hedge funds throw out their positions denominated in ringgit.

We have seen this happen before.

UPDATE: A reader alerted Screenshots of the following:

Bank of Japan (BOJ) is still divided in raising interest rate. The BOJ kept the key overnight call rate target unchanged at 0.25% at in its January policy meeting in a rare split vote of 6-3.

BOJ cited recent softness in consumption and prices as the main reason for holding off on a rate hike. The term is called "carry trade play"

The next BOJ policy board meeting is Feb 20-21. The environment for carry trades is likely to continue for the next two months!

Meanwhile, Oriental Daily News reported February 11 that Japanese Finance Minister Koji Omi has hinted at increasing the interest rates in response to European economies' concerned over the sluggish Japanese forex.

Original report in Oriental Daily News (Feb 9):

MIMB投資銀行研究經理馮庭秀表示,大馬股市未來的走勢主要胥視匯市的狀況而定,尤其是日圓走勢。

他透露,在過去3個月,看到有相當大數目的避險基金開始進入大馬股市,而這些基金通常都在日本借錢(因為日本的利率非常低),然後把日圓轉換成令吉,再買入以令吉為基礎的資產。

因此,在令吉走強,以及股市飆升的情況下,這些避險基金將享有雙重獲利。

不過,最為關鍵的問題是日圓會否轉強,馮庭秀指出,如果日圓上漲,這代表投入馬股的避險基金將開始虧錢;更甚的是,若日圓快速走強,這些避險基金將會拋售以令吉計價的資產。

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