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Share market and dream factory

Is the bull run real?

Oriental Daily News Executive Editor-in-Chief Ko Kek Hock, who is also a senior business editor in the Chinese press, offers a timely reminder on the rudiments for market players:

"When everybody is rushing into the market, it's time to exit; when everyone is rushing out, it's time to enter."

「當每個人都想進場時,就是出場時點;當每個人都急著出場時,就是進場時點。」

Admitting that the current bull run is real, Ko also says the share market is another dream factory not unlike the world of entertainment. "There is an abundance of people who wanted to realise their dreams in the market. Just that some got their dreams fulfilled, some had to leave heart-broken."

Over the last three days, daily trading volume on Bursa Malaysia has dropped from a record high of 4.699 billion shares February 21 to 3.1992 billion shares yesterday, a sign of the market entering a correction phase.

KLCI closed at 1283.47 point for the week yesterday, with 382 gainers vs 651 losers, 179 counters unchanged, 102 counters without transactions..

Yesterday's intra-day high was at 1283.8 points, low at 1270.52. Active counters were Genting, CIMB and CIMB Warrants.

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Comments

Whilst the bull run may be real, I do not think the analysis that it is due to a robust economy is correct, especially as the domestic economy is still plagued by a myriad of problems. The market is in large part pushed by hot money as:

1 - Investors ex- or planning to invest in Thailand pulled out of that country's bourse due to the flip-flopping of the mitiray gov's economic policies and renewed nationalist tendencies. This money naturally found a new home in Malaysia.

2 - The reason Malaysia was a natural home for ex-Thai investments is that BursaMalaysia has been THE WORST PERFORMING BOURSE IN THE REGION BY FAR over the lat couple of years! Our bull run has come late and more due the misfortune of others and...

3 - Speculative investors are slavering over the prospective signing of the USFTA leading to major M&A activities, including US companies taking up stakes in many Malaysian companies, private and GLC, with the collapsing of barriers!

4 - I am hence not sure of the rising Ringgit to Dollar is hence a contributor or symptom of the influx of hot money.

Nevertheless, my feeling too is... investors beware...

KLCI surge is for real now, nevertheless it is a propaganda Ground Exercise for a General Election. The BN is preparing but isn't about to call one as Abdullah doesn't need a new mandate. But Samy after the CWC meeting has directed State chiefs to get ready. Such goods news may be an inspiration to the rich and those with cash to invest but not to the many small businessmen and workers as many for the first time did not even receive 2006 annual bonuses.
More details at:
http://powerpresent.blogspot.com/2007/02/klci-index-surge-for-real-lasting-or.html

I dont think the economy on the ground is in line with the stock market as the big foreign boys are playing it to lure the locals in.

I spoke to a policeman on 5th day of CNY and asked him why we did not see him as usual in the patrol car on 1st day of CNY. He said a lot of works and a lot crime here and there. He told sadly that some of the snatch thieves he caught are actually university students, jobless people and he pitied them but has a job to do. He said he came across a lot of orang menganggur or no bonus and not enough to feed the families due the higher costs of living.

What he said add further to my own observation, not many people are happy celebrating CNY this year as bonus is disappointing and paid almost right before CNY, minimum or no increments and business are not improving for the general public.

I dont know about you guys but I really feel the negative sentiments.

I just hope the PM do something about the general wealth being of the rakyat rather than a wild goose chase to soothe somebody'e ego here and there.The inexperience really showed.

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