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Maths again?

A reader, who claims to be a full time stock trader, wanted to respond to this story in The Star:

Khairy_Loss_060814.jpg
SOURCE:The Star August 14, 2006

This is what reader LCY emailed Screenshots:

hi jeff, i dont have the access to your site to post messages so i email you on this matter, below is what i try to figure out abt the khairy stake sale..cause im a full time stock trader...it really makes me put on my thinking cap, what do you think abt it?
  • khairy reportedly sold 10.2 million shares at 0.65

  • khairy reportedly bought 10.2 million shares at 0.71

he shud have a gross loss of rm612,000 (excluding brokerages, stamp fee, etc)

Estimated gross loss shud b rm659,564.8 (that is EXACTLY 10.2 million shares Bought/Sold at EXACTLY the stated price including brokerages * i give him 0.3% which is lowest fees for transactions bigger than 100k worth of shares, ahem.. unless someone has VVIP treatment)

how come the loss he states out is 200k? doesnt make sense,...unless he sell to sum1 higher than the stated price or he is very very bad at mathematics...

Incredibly, PAS sec-gen Kamarudin Jaffar also put Khairy's damage at RM612,000.

Parliamentary Opposition Leader Lim Kit Siang also commented on the matter, looking at different but equally pertinent angles. He said Khairy's cashing out from ECM-Libra Avenue "only sparked more queries, including integrity issues".

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Hey Jeff

This is not fair la. Offcourse Khairy knows that you lot can count. but his declaration of RM200k loss was only for the consumption of the UMNO Youth doubters and the other UMNO Putras. After all are they all not conditioned enough to listen to and believe in their leaders? That is the mantra of all UMNO leaders isn't it? And you cann see how well that mantra works. You can say all you want in Screenshots or even that Raja Petra's cynical comments in his Malaysia-Today...but the very obedient members of UMNO will not read all those lies...and remember they have been told that whats written in the web sites are all lies. And so they shall believe. The rest of you, including this writter don't matter la!

Actually the figure reported did not add up.

1. reported to spend about RM9 million tu purchase shares at RM0.71 per share. This translate to 12,676,000 shares not 10.2 million shares.10.2 million shares at RM0.71 only translated to about RM7.242 millions.

2. It was reported he holds 3% of ECM Libra shares this translated to 3% x 433,000,000 = 12,990,000 shares

3. It was also reported 1 ECM Libra share will get 1 ECM Libra Avenue shares therefore, he got 12,990,000 ECM Libra Avenue shares.

So if he sold of 10.2 millions of ECM Libra Avenue that means he still hold 2,790,000 shares.

What about his share holding in ECM Libra itself?

Can someone answer explain to me this? I am confused.

Personally I don’t like the way he tried to play up the politics along the racial line… claiming that he rejected a higher offer from a Chinese businessman as “I will not let that happen and will rather suffer losses as long as the shares remain in the hands of our people.”. This is real big deal !!!

But I think that “stupid” unnamed Chinese businessman must be someone from Mars. Do you think there is such a stupid businessman (be it a Malaysian Chinese, an Indonesian Chineses or a Mainland Chinese, or any other race) who would want to pay a higher price than what one can easily buy the same shares from the KLSE ? The 1% or about 10mil shares is really too small to be considered strategic at all. If one really wants it, one can easily pick up that amount of shares even in a single trading day.

Actually I couldn't be bothered about numbers. After all if we can loose RM31 Billion and not bat an eye...whats all these numbers going to do to upset anybody really...Just take it with a pinch of salt.

However, when I read this news in The Star, what irked me most was his statement that he did not sell to the best bidder, a Chinese, and only sold it to another Bumiputra company. Now what was the bloody f..king objective of that statement? It was a totally unnecessary piece of information in regards to his sale of his shares if in fact such a disposal infact did occur.

Why did he need to show up the demonised bogey man for? Did that piece of shit ass information satisfy the idiots who make up the UMNOPutra crowd? Or is it that by making it look like he made some bold sacrifices that he had carried out the divine act of denying a Malaysian Chinese of gaining bumiputra equity? [ DELETED ]

That in itslef is a pathetic party and sadly the members there can't seem to see how you actually regard them.

Yes, it does not add up.

According to the transactions, it was not 1 share swap 1 share.

Kalimullah had 43,394,641 shares in ECMLIB. After the swap, he had 56,256,500 shares in ECM.

Lim Kian Onn had 58,972,807 shares in ECMLIB. After the swap, he had 76,456,000 shares in ECM.

Similarly, David Chua had 56,256,500 shares in ECM after the swap.

All transactions are done at the rate of 0.771

So after the swap KJ should have 16,841,041 (to be exact) shares in ECM.

He (KJ) either sold off some of his ECMLIB shares before the merge or did not disclose the actual shares he is still holding in ECM.

Buying 10.2 mil shares @ RM0.71 costs about RM7.3 mil, incl. brokerage. Selling 10.2 mil shares @ RM0.67 is about RM6.9 mil. Difference RM400k, double what he said.

Maybe he got some at a cheaper price (the highly discounted price of RM0.57 which David Chua sold?) and resold at RM0.67, thereby reducing his losses?

Market announcements about transactions are not trustworthy because for such size of holdings, there could be multiple transactions over a range of prices, and there's no way for us to check.

1. KJ acquired 12,990,000 shares in ECM Libra.

2. According to Bernama he sold his entire stake of 10.20 million shares in ECM Libra Avenue and lost RM200,000.

I think he is talking about his net loss in his foray. He would have received 12,990,000 shares in ECM Libra Avenue. He sold only 10.20 miilion (and that represented his "entire stake" to quote Bernama) because I think he must have sold 2,790,000 shares in ECM Libra shares cum-rights when the price began to climb significantly after his intitial purchase.

To make a gain of about RM400,000 he would have needed to sell the 2,790,000 at an average price of 86 sen (86-71 sen x 2,790,000). This price level was achieved the very day after his purchase was announced. And it did venture beyond RM1.

See the ample profit-making opportunities ANY investor who dared believed the run-up could be sustained for a short period described in my response to yesterday's blog topic, ECM-Libra: Brouhaha about Highs & Lows :-

"The share price surged by 10% the day after KJ acquired his 3%, a reaction befitting Malaysian investors’ penchant for what Benkaiser aptly calls the "political sentiment factor". The surge continued in early January '06 and the company was even asked by Bursa Malaysia to comment of the Jan 4 NST Business Times headline "ECM LIBRA SURGES ON INVESTMENT BANK STATUS TALK". This run-up culminated in the intra-day high of RM1.12 on January 11. Then on Jan 19 the merger with Avenue was announced and the public was duly informed that the amount of "Consideration Shares" (ultimately settled at 442 million shares in ECM Libra Avenue Berhad in February) took into account, inter-alia, “the total market capitalization of ECM Libra of RM459.0 million, based on the closing price of the shares of RM1.06 as at 17 January 2006.”

Thus the higher the price on the last market day before the announcement, the higher will be the number of consideration shares and the easier it shall be to obtain shareholders' approval for the merger. Thus all ECM Libra shareholders should be thankful for the run-up in the share price or the 1 for 1 share swap may not have been possible.

Was the timing of the run-up and the merger deal purely coincidental?"

Sorry about my error above, it was 1 share for 1 share.

KJ should had 12,990,000 shares. After the swap, he had 10,207,720 (assuming correct as reported) in ECM, he still holds 2,782,280 shares in ECMLIB.

somebody in RPK's forum mentioned the following possibilities :-

1. wah, u can lose so much money are RM200k ... how are you going 2 pay ?

2. that still didn't justify u to borrow someone elses' money to make a big loss

3. or izzit ur lying ? maybe u just park your shares with someone else and one day u will get them back ?

so by selling the shares, do u need not pay back the ppl who borrow money to you ?

more than meet the eyes !

If birdseye is correct that he sold 2,790,000 ECMLIB shares, then it is possible that he lost about RM200k.

The numbers only adds up if he sold them at about 0.85.

Note:
10.2mil @ 0.65 = RM6.63mil
2.79 @ 0.85 = RM2.37mil
Total RM9mil against RM9.2mil invested.

look whichever way you guys want it still didnt add up...

according to the email jeff commented on previously, KJ bought 12.99m ECM-Libra's shares at RM0.71 which is equivalent to RM9.23m... he sold 10.2m ECM-Libra Avenue's at RM0.65 which is equivalent to RM6.63m... now that is already RM3m difference... how now brown cow?

hahaha, we are all guessing here, nobody knows what actually happened. KJ might be rolling on the ground laughing at all the comments..
There is no transparency at all in the Malaysian corporate world. Everybody cover up and lie, that include BSKL, SC, ROC, MOF, and perhaps u and me.

What a wonderful world we have. God bless us.

streetz,

I'm sure you realise my analysis must necessarily be dependent on the accuracy of Bernama when it reported that KJ had sold his ENTIRE STAKE of 10.20 million shares in ECM Libra Avenue. I take that to mean he has NOTHING left. So he must have either sold the unaccounted for 2,790,000 shares in ECM Libra (before the swap), transferred the said shares to a charity them or gifted them to his favourite actress.

I recall he borrowed 9.2 million ringgit from the "vendors" of ECMLIB to buy up 3% of ECMLIB shares.

Somebody have to enlight me how he should pay back the "loan".

If he is not paying back the 9.2 mil right away, then he still can make use of the 9 million cash in his bank to roll and make bigger bucks, right?

streetz

Did u read the news that Kali asking what is wrong helping KJ? He will said what is wrong that KJ no need to pay back next.Actually there is nothing wrong if he wants to give his money to KJ, carries his balls, just that what in return u get from KJ is something questionable? Because that involved GLC, and who own government, WE, the rakyat, so u are playing with my money (even it might be 1 sen, but i dont want to give it to u, whats wrong with that? Kali?)

the numbers clears don't add up. but let not get distracted by the numbers. what's going on in this case is very telling. imho, kali is most honest to ask "what's wrong...", "there are many politicians and their children..." while the pm said "he has the right to..." and "he borrowed the money...".
yes it is "normal" and it is very common in malaysia politics. it may be gray area when comes to legality , that's why they are called "lobang-lobang". even if they are not clearly illegal, they are definitely unethical and if aab wants any credibility in his clean gov, transparency, anti-corruption stand he'll have to stop these get rich quick schemes immediately.

The real beneficiaries of the merger appears to be the founding members(also the largest shareholders) of ECMLibra. They didn't even have to pay the merger fees, Avenue(meaning the taxpayers through the MoF paid for it). If I were one of the largest shareholders I would gladly loan the money/shares to the person who schemed the whole exercise. No need to pay back also never mind.

it's business investment for the capitalists. in this case, a profitable one. what's an investment of 10mil with this kind of return?
it's a get rich quick scheme for the politically connected. 10mil is incredible money for a 31yo, oxbridge or not, not very likely without political connection.

lsk;

when the numbers do not add up, then we have more question, such as is he telling the truth? if not why? is he hidding something?

kamil, i agree that the numbers gave their game away. however if we pick at the numbers, it'll only encourages the players to improve their games, do their homework better, work harder at making the lies believable in the future.
we need to have a new paradigm, a new culture, a new standard of what are unacceptable. it is not that the numbers are unacceptable, but the politically-linked business dealings are unacceptable.
the pm is the man tasked to lead the way. what hope do we have if he doesn't know the difference between clean and not?

Hei, you guys are really good at Maths!

However if I am KJ, I only need to worry about who's going to give me the next loan to pay for my losses!

Line up, you guys!

you guys never heard of paper loss??

and there is no need to divest if you had done an proper honest transaction..unless something fishy..

and I smell fish..and rotten it is..

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