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9MP: What's the fiscal policy?

The Government has sufficient funds to implement projects under the Ninth Malaysia Plan (9MP) which is budgetted at RM200 billion for development projects, said Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi yesterday.

It is noted that the budget is an increase of 17.6% over the RM170bil provided under the Eighth Malaysia Plan (2001-2005).

The question now is how this amount of allocated RM200 billion is going to be spent anchored on a defensible fiscal policy?

For context, there is an earlier blog on March 31, titled: 9MP: Development Costs & National Debts.

As 9MP will be funded via debt financing and deficit spending, attention was drawn to the 9MP blueprint which indicates that Federal government debt will balloon to RM351.3 billion, or 48.6%, of the GDP by the end of the development period in 2010.

If you trace back, under the 8MP, the government had planned to limit the deficit to RM29.8 billion, or 1.5%, of the GDP. Instead, the federal government ran a deficit of RM97.8 billion, or 4.8%, of the GDP.

This brought the total government debt by the end of the 8MP to RM228.6 billion, or 46.3% of the GDP.

Under 9MP, the government deficit will amount to RM107.6 billion, or 3.4%, of the GDP. Total government debt by 2010 will balloon to RM351.3 billion, or 48.6% of GDP.

Last week, Paul Donovan, UBS Investment Research managing director of global economics, commented that Abdullah's forecast of 6% GDP for 2006 borders on the ambitious. He said Malaysia's growth will hover in the region of 5.25% to 5.5% in the next two to three years time frame.

Meanwhile, a reader to A Kadir Jasin's blog, who calls himself as "the economist" who has served at the Malaysian Business Council, has an interesting observation on the difference in fiscal policy since Dr Mahathir retired, and I quote (commentary time-stamped 11:37am):

Ini berbeza dengan zaman Tun Mahathir di mana Tun dan dua menteri kewangannya iaitu Tun Daim dan Datuk Seri Anwar mengutamakan dasar growth with price stability iaitu menjana pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi mengawal kenaikan harga.

Waktu itu, economic team kerajaan cukup mantap dengan gabungan Tun Mahathir, Daim, Anwar, Mustapha Mohamed dan penasihat-penasihat yang berwibawa. Saya bernasib turut dapat memberi pandangan sebagai ahli Majlis Perdagangan Malaysia (Malaysian Business Council).

Dasar sekarang tidak pro-perniagaan dan tidak pro-pengguna. Ia lebih merupakam dasar yang mengutamakan kestabilan fiscal (kewangan) dan monetary (matawang) yang sempit. Ini mula dirasai apabila permintaan pengguna merosot tetapi harga terus naik.

Anyone cares to translate the above passage for the benefit of our non-Malay speaking readers? Otherwise, let's make do with this version courtesy of YW Loke of BeritaMalaysia:

This is different from Tun Mahathir's time where Tun and his two finance ministers, Tun Daim and Datuk Seri Anwar, emphasized a policy of growth with price stability, that is generate high economic growth while controlling price increases.

At that time, the government's economic team was well-established with Tun Mahathir partnered by Daim, Anwar, Mustapha Mohammed and advisors who were authoritative. I had the opportunity to offer my views as a member of the Malaysian Business Council.

The present policy is not pro-business and not pro-consumers. It is more a policy which emphasizes tight fiscal [financial] and monetary stability. This has begun to be felt whenever consumer demand fell but prices continued
to rise.

Numbers crunching aside, Joe Publics who placed 92% manadate in Abdullah's hands may look at the national economy in a simpler perspective, which has been rightly encased by Wong Chun Wai yesterday:

I believe that the majority of Malaysians would like to see the leadership spend its time tackling real people issues like the rising cost of living. Ordinary Malaysians talk about their rising petrol and electricity bills, and now the sugar shortage.

And you know how much effort has been made to lend an ear to hear Joe Public's muffled grouses on the streets.

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Comments

Allow me, please. :)

This is a change from the time of Tun Mahathir, where he and two other ministers ("cohorts?"), namely Tun Daim and Datuk Seri Anwar, focussed on economic growth while maintaining price stability i.e. generate high economic growth but also controlling price increases.

At that time, the government economic team was rock solid, comprising Tun Mahathir, Daim, Anwar, Mustapha Mohamed and the leading authoritative advisors. I myself am fortunate to be able to provide my input as a member of the Malaysian Business Council.

The current policy is not pro-business and not pro-consumer. It's more like one that prizes fiscal stability ("prudence?") and a narrow monetary stability. This is being felt when consumer demand falls, yet prices still rise.

Now for my "translation".
Boo hoo hoo. It was better the last time under the Mad Hatter. Boo hoo hoo.

No one listens to me any more. Boo hoo hoo.
End of "translation".

Hey guy, aren't our problems now caused by the degenerative spending the last umpteen years?

Ain't our education system broke cos' some one in the last umpteen years did it out of spite?

Aren't you driving a jalopy of a National car because we wanted to show the superiority of the ketuanan in an industry filled by mat sallehs?

Didn't we all cringe in fear when the ISA was brandished like there's no tomorrow?

How quickly we forget.

Give AAB a break man.

I thought we should be reducing our debt by canceling all the mega projects? I guess a billion dollar here a billion dollars there of cancelation fees do add up.

could it be AAB advisers are not up to mark...or the advisers are also blur blur..

Tun must be smiling.

STAR, Wong Chun Wai “I believe that the majority of Malaysians would like to see the leadership spend its time tackling real people issues” – very TRUE!

What about some time to look at the perceived ” FEARS AND EXPRESSED BELIEFS” of the Internal Security Ministry in banning books?
Check the Titles and Authors at

http://powerpresent.blogspot.com/2006/06/18-more-books-6-in-malay-banned-in.html

Some of the books are in the market for years and only now they realized these books are a threat to ”disrupt PEACE & SECURITY”. Any justification?

Under madhatter, oil (UAS12-30/barrel) and other commodities were low, due to asian countries recovering from the financial crisis. At one time, the government was making money fron taxes colected from petroleum sales around 1998-2001.Then came 2004 and everything went ballistic. Even scrap metals are in demand. They call this the China factor.
Under AAB, just subsidising refined petroleum products comes to RM20 billion a year (maybe more).If you include LNG/LPG (natural gas/petroleum gas) then it will be a heck of a lot more.
So oil related/energy subsidies in the 9MP will be roughly RM100billion (minimum.) at current rates.

A pro-business environment does not mean spending money to help businessman.pro business policy means making it easy for entreprises to be formed and thrive with minimum government intervention.(that includes less bumi policy and other unecessary license requirements), plus access to government held r & d facilities to develope marketable products.

energy prices is expected to go upward next year as subsidies is not sustainable.
Its funny A kadir Jasin to make comments on the economy as he drove NST to the ground under his stewardship.

Yumcious,
What's so wrong about proving our "ketuanan" vis-a-vis the MatSallehs? The Japanese have done it, the Koreans have done it, why not we Malaysians?

What is wrong with MALAYSIAN SUPREMACY!?

You may not be driving a Proton but I do, have been since my first Saga Aeroback in the early 90s. You may drive a Merc or BMW, made by the Kwailos you so obviously still want to adulate.

But Mercs and Beemers have problems too.

Proton has had teething problems and will continue to have problems. But those mechanical, technical and vendor problems pale compared with the problems created by AAB's people who are lusting for Proton's CASH.

Yes, CASH. Billions of rinnggit in cash, Proron does have. Ask Jeff Ooi.

AAb does not need a break. he needs to break his ties with these greedy people.

AAB is lucky that the prices of commodities has gone up like crazy. We city folks are suffering due to slow in business, however, kampung folks are very happy these days. Imagine, a rubber taper could easily getting 2 to 3 hundred ringgit a day. However, we are behind Indonesia in oil palm and rubber we are behind Thailand already. Personally i think it is not a good idea to turn back to agriculture, not for short term and neither for long term. Forget about Bio-tech. These people dont know what the heck is bio-tech all about. It is really a laughing stocks whenever i see these people commenting that Malaysia has the right resources to go into bio-tech, because we have many herbs, we have daun pegaga, we have tongkat ali.. oh.. give me a break.

Malaysian Rice Distributor Association had cautioned that the price of rice may increase from October.
A housewife said that the price of one average size cucumber is now equiv to an imported apple.

lubok melayu,
there is nothing wrong with 'Malaysian Supremacy' if there is something to be supreme about. not if the supremacy is established and maintained by unreasonable trade barriers that punish the local population. with the side effect of lulling easily deceived people into believing the illusion of 'supremacy' when everything is going down the drain.
I too drive a Proton. and all the money you are going on about is from poor citizens like me who has to pay more to buy less. great supremacy.

Hey lubok
Thank you for your comments.

Me adulate kwailos? Ptoooi, to quote Popeye. Most I dislike, may be one or two I can put up with. I feel they have one set of standards, and they hold us dirty Asians to a different one. I've seen enough of consultants and experts that are nothing but glorified sea-gulls (sh*ts, flies off, and us locals clean up). But I digress.

All I'm saying is that we expect AAB [yes -- and I will say it -- his group of cronies] to clean up the mess left over by an almost half a generation of flagrant abuse.

Now, when AAB "permits" open debate, people say he's weak. When TDM "disallows" the same, he's a tyrant.

When he put a stop to the bridge, all sorts of figures are quoted to calculatively make him look bad. Maybe he knows something we don't have privy to. And would you want it be known that you presided over a crooked bridge, however wonderful a spin those idiots want to put on the scenic wonder.

When petrol prices rose, people blame him for not caring for the rakyat enough. Gripes about public transport, cost of living increases. All these are valid, but did it originate from AAB?

We need to look back to the past to figure out why we are now in such a deep pit of muck up to our armpits.

Maybe you should try running the country sometimes. Or, you should try running a company first. Then you'd appreciate what a darn tough job running Malaysia is.

I believe there will be period of adjustment to this new openness that people assume to be a weakness. All I say is give him a break.

And no, I don't drive a Merc or a BMW. I'd very much like to, though, just like you.

quote:
The present policy is not pro-business and not pro-consumers. It is more a policy which emphasizes tight fiscal [financial] and monetary stability. This has begun to be felt whenever consumer demand fell but prices continued
to rise.
unquote.

Aren't "pro businesse" and "pro consumers" the same thing? It basically means allowing free market, free trade and no interferance from the government. We all know that things like taxes, quotas and so on discourages consumer spending (higher price) and thus discourages business. Under the Mathathir's regime, I don't see them neither as very pro consumers nor very pro business. A Kadir Jasin implies that the current inflation is caused by the gouvernment's tight fiscal and monetary policy,

JEFF OOI says: You are shooting from the hip. Read carefully. The quotation you questioned is NOT from A Kadir Jasin. It actually came from a reader of his who called himself "the economist" claiming he had served in the Malaysian Business Council -- and the bloody thing is, I made the context specifically clear and you chose to distort it.

which do not make sense as a lower spending and a tighter monatery policy is usually used to combat inflation, not provoke it. I stand corrected if I've made any errors in economics here, since I am not a graduate in econs.

dear francophone

government fiscal and economic policy would also aptly include the revision of various subsidies ...

in this case, the reduction of petrol/diesel subsidy is part and parcel of the fiscal policy which will fuel inflation/rising cost of living as fuel prices is very much co-related to pricing of goods and movability of services ...

fyi, the only *free* market in this world is none other than the US and HK model ... laisez-faire ... movement of goods/services depending on demand/supply ...

ours model like many other countries is a controlled economy by the government ...

agreed with various writers - Tun's fiscal policy is more in tune with being pro-business/consumers ...

this is supported by other factors such as lack of incentives from the fiscal policy/annual budget like last year that doesn't seem to give any beef for business/ordinary folks to increase economic activities ...

The US is not a free liberlised market economy as made be by comments made above. That honour goes to somalia. With no government in power since 1990's you can ship in anything (ncluding nuclear weapons) and nobody will batan eye lid.And as there is no gvernment to colect tariffs, it is all duty free.
The US impose 25% on all imported trucks, duties on imported steel, etc and heavily subsidies it agriculture sector. Only US based airlines are allowed for flights between US cities. Foreign companies not allied to U ordeemeda thrat are not allowed businesses there.

ahh...excuse me for this error, Jeff...my wrong.

JEFF OOI says: You knowe, as the owner of this blog, I must make sure I don't get sued for defamation or libel without a cause.

Dear sydput,
The problem with Somalia is that when there is no official government, an underground one takes over. :) I am sure we have to pay some heavy "tolls" if we want to bring some nuclear missles in.

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