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Recipe for chaos, if Leslie Lopez was right

Leslie Lopez, who used to be staff correspondent for the directionless Wall Street Journal/Dow Jones, now reports for Straits Times as a Malaysian Correspondent reporting to Singapore-based Warren Fernandez, Foreign News desk.

Leslie has a story in today's Straits Times, titled: 'Mahathir's attacks fuel talk of comeback'.

He said no one is suggesting that Dr Mahathir is planning a leadership grab, but there are concerns that he could give some serious political grief to Datuk Seri Abdullah in the coming months.

But Leslie discussed some scenarios.

Who suffer if the eventuality of Mahathir-Abdullah clash happened?

A more politically active Tun Mahathir would put Malaysia's business elite, who have long relied on the state for business, on edge because of potential uncertainty born of a shifting power structure. {...] It could also upset a budding rally on the Malaysian stock market, say analysts."

Why would Mahathir make life difficult for Abdullah?

"Close associates of the former premier say that Tun Mahathir's displeasure with Datuk Seri Abdullah stems from his belief that the current administration is on a campaign to smear and systematically dismantle his legacy."

That includes Proton and the bridge that was to replace the Causeway.

Dr Mahathir, who often crossed swords with Singapore during his 22-year tenure, said that the Malaysian government's decision to scrap the bridge project he proposed in 1996 was tantamount to surrendering the country's sovereignty.

By publishing a 7-page Open Letter, has Dr Mahathir said his last?

"Several analysts agree that Tun Mahathir is unlikely to let up on his attacks against the Malaysian government.

They believe he is likely to organise meetings with members of the ruling party, Umno, to explain his criticism of the current administration."

Can Dr Mahathir shake Abdullah and his power of incumbent?

Leslie quoted an academic as saying that unseating an incumbent is extremely difficult in a political system which is largely patronage-driven. And Abdullah, who recently unveiled a RM200 billion five-year development plan, is now in the position to dispense patronage.

So, Leslie added, it is expected that Umno politicians and business groups linked to the party are unlikely to oppose Abdullah in any face-off with Mahathir for fear that they could be dropped or blacklisted in the contest for contract awards under the country's new development plans.

Is Abdullah strong and entrenched in Umno power play?

While Abdullah's position appears secure enough, several analysts say that forces aligned to Mahathir could easily tap on the strong undercurrents in Umno to weaken the Premier's grip on power.

One potentially destabilising issue is political succession in Malaysia.

The 66-year-old Abdullah and Mahathir are considered to be from the same political generation, and many Umno members believe the next leadership succession, which would pave the way for Deputy Premier Najib Abdul Razak, should take place sooner.

Several analysts say that Mahathir's political agitation against Abdullah would fit in nicely for those seeking to push forward the succession timetable.

Will Abdullah stay on?

'There is a view that Abdullah should only stay for one term and there are many in the party who would like to see him politically weakened to make way for a power change,' says a senior Umno official aligned to the Premier.

Close associates of Abdullah say that the Premier is aware that some party officials may be impatient. 'But Abdullah is determined to go for another term. The change he wants to bring about will take time and he wants to see it through,' says a close aide.

If Leslie read it correctly, we now have the right pinch of salt and spices to go with the perfect recipe for chaos.

Thanks YW Loke of BeritaMalaysia for the heads-up.

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