« 9MP: RM200 billion for 2006 - 2010 spending | Main | Internet connectivity... Problems, Day 5 »

9MP: Development Costs & National Debts

Three questions pertaining to 9MP that's packaged with RM200 billion allocated for development expenditure from 2006 through 2010:

1 ) How is it going to be financed?
2 ) What's the financial status for the country by the time 9MP is accomplished?
3 ) What's the returns on RM200 billion investment on development?

Financing

At a glance, the 9th Malaysia Plan blueprint indicates deficit budgetting and deficit spending:

  • The federal government will lean on local funds, such as the Employees Providence Fund, to finance the deficit.

  • Domestic debt and foreign debt will reach RM319.9 billion and RM31.3 billion respectively.

  • Debt servicing will grow by 10.2% reaching RM79.4 billion over the next five years.

  • Deficit spending will perpetuate despite growing income from petroleum exports and taxes, as well as a reduction on petrol and energy subsidies.

  • Besides spending RM200 billion on development, the government will be spending RM595.5 billion on operating expenditure, including RM154.6 billion on emoluments and RM199.3 billion on supplies and services.

End-period financial status

At a glance, the 9th Malaysia Plan blueprint indicates that Federal government debt will balloon to RM351.3 billion, or 48.6%, of the GDP by the end of the development period in 2010.

9MP_Debt_as_GDP.gif
Graphics from Malaysiakini

Whereas, it's note-worthy to mention that over half of the debt is a result of deficit spending from 2000 to 2010.

If you trace back, under the 8th Malaysia Plan (2001 - 2005), the government had planned to limit the deficit to RM29.8 billion, or 1.5%, of the GDP. Instead, the federal government ran a deficit of RM97.8 billion, or 4.8%, of the GDP.

This brought the total government debt by the end of the 8th Malaysia Plan to RM228.6 billion, or 46.3% of the GDP.

Under 9MP, the government deficit will amount to RM107.6 billion, or 3.4%, of the GDP. Total government debt by 2010 will balloon to RM351.3 billion, or 48.6% of GDP.

The ROI

First and foremost, it is not clear how the federal government plans to reduce its debts. But expect our mainstream media to give you the benefits, milestones and KPIs. They do a better job than bloggers in this.

In addition, there is no concrete indication on how national wealth will be equitably distributed over the next five years.

The 9MP blueprint released today says that the country’s Gini coefficient - a measurement for income disparity - has worsened from 0.452 in 1999 to 0.462 in 2004.

It describes the trend as “worrisome” and adds that the divide between the rich and poor has widen in all ethnic groups, with inequality among the bumiputera being the highest.

What will happen to the already bad income disparity, then? Will the rich become richer, the poor poorer?

Perhaps, addendum will come soon.

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.jeffooi.com/mt32/mt-tb.cgi/223

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference 9MP: Development Costs & National Debts:

» 'Pity the spin-doctors' from Screenshots
From Steven Gan: Pity the spin-doctors. They really do have their job cut out for them. Take for instance, the directive for all policewomen to don the ‘tudung’ at official parades. This was surprisingly backed by Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad... [Read More]

Comments

"But expect our mainstream media to give you the benefits, milestones and KPIs. They do a better job than bloggers in this."

Did you let slip that one or really conceding defeat!..Sad man if that is the case...we all thought we could rely on you to sum it all...now got to read all the other garbage to find out what its all about, i.e. if we care at all.

And really as for teh rest of it, if we are not a crony, should we even bother?

Dunno why, but a bit scared le.

I just wanna know how much money in reserve or will be reserved for tsumanis, flying spaghetti monsters or any future disasters...

where is my second penang bridge?

My main worry is that they will pass a bill where we cannot withdraw lumpsum of our EPF on retirement.
Our EPF money will be squandered by the cronies groups who superly enrich themselves at the expense of the rakyat.
Their records has always been screwed. Eg. What happened to the RM600M spent on the sub-standard schools?

My feelings are mixed. It's a big, big risky plan and hopefully the money spent will generate a sustainable economy for our future generations. Just surprised that we still claim the Vision 2020 is achievable when I read in NST that with the 9MP, the growth is 5-6% annually but we need about 8-9% from this year to reach the original target in 2020 (also considering the vision was based on previous exhange rate of 2.5 or better against the greenback I think). Our nation is at a cross-road in these few years and either 9MP sinks us or makes us fly .... just too bad I can't withdraw most of my sweat-money from my EPF.

deficit Balloning!
again a case where greedy mouths are sucking governmental coffers, easy one, to enrich themselves. At the end, rakyats pay for it. (prepare Plan B for future kids, folks..)

One word for these greedy mouths, go and pick Tony Fernadez brain and DIG from overseas!

Oh, and aim to sustain the
reduntant and ineffective public services numbers...
Cut it!

Where to get fund to pay the debt? Easy, traceback the old income tax return and fine those late payment! I just got one today, tracing back to 2003. The fine is RM300. Attached is a form to ask you to tick your "offence" and sign to acknowledge it. What is the deadline? Nobody know. Called up LHDN said 31/03/03. And my acocuntant put down 01/04/03 during submission three years ago. I don't know should I fire my accountant or not. Apparently, for the past 6 years, we have been declaring income tax without knowing the deadline! And my accountant choose the date she like... OMG.

Correction. Opps, not income tax return. Form E.

Aiyah, Apollo Market, don't ask 2nd bridge, you ask where's the surprise-lah! Pak Lah say got surprise for Penang. So, what's the surprise?

Surprise mai NOTHING loh. Ta-dah!

Your surprise.

It'll be a "tax again and spend again" tendency. The sad fact is voters are left with a choice of "comment after mandating" and "imprecation". Politicians are applauding of what a good plan is and citizens are keeping abreast with the time. The difference is one receives fame and the other one receives heavy standard of living. However, some people said "good" without financial consideration; some people said "no good" without thoughtfulness. So I've lost my abstract sense on it! Only have to wait and see what shall be happened.

No much point spending big big bucks to build a second bridge as it will mean a nightmare to drivers in Penang as more vehicle will be on the never expanded roads. Existing bridge should expand and include a railway.
But building railway transit on this island is absolutely right but why must it be "Light" one instead of "Mass" one?
Just wondering would all the main places like Komtar,Jetty,Airport,Bayan Lepas Industrial Area,Kek Lok Si,Gurney and etc be interconnected by the railway or not?
The best is to extend the railway to butterworth main bus and railway station.

No matter what,NEP and 30% rule still intact....

SY,

yeah, that will be the surprise. Then they will tell you to change your lifestyle...

According to the STAR, apparently Penang is finally getting both the 2nd link and Mono rail.

That's about 10 years too late.

Roughly, that's RM30 Billion a year on emoluments for a public sector of 1 million.

Also, debt servicing ratio seems to have doubled from some years back; when it was 5.4%, concerns in parliament heated up; now, zilch.

One analyst opined the 9MP is anticlimactic; another said big construction companies will lose out.

Continuing the knowledge-centric drive needs policy changes crossed against what was underachieved under 8MP; they're not clear nor candid on what's needed. And it's going to affect the biotech projects, the only new thing being said in this new plan.

It seems a bit cavalier to make use of the rakyats' retirement fund to finance government DEBT; for most, the EPF savings will last them max. 5 years after 55; so unless they have support, they should plan their departure by 61.

the gini index has been illustrated in the recent demos over the fuel hike; the pain will be the urban poor; they can't spade the concrete to plant the potato; when they step out of their flat, no way no money not spent; even fifty sen; this spectre will grow; are they aware?

the problem will m-plans is too much federated focus but we know in the end, the delivery points are the States; better hover over them, and THEIR delivery points - the city/town councils; nothing thick said on them in this plan; the authors in focus?

we're in the age of the thumb culture (sms). where's the vision for mobile apps, commercial and public sector?

if they talk about private sector engine, also say a bit on competitive advantage environment that public sector can foster, and set a couple of benchmarks for industry; then come out will be the disconnect between present policies and globalization imperatives; nothing again in this plan.

so, bottomline, what's the difference? to answer this question, could the plan have been written any other way? the answer, probably not. And why? the answer, because there are really very few options. And why? the answer, the policy transformation process has stalled. And why? the answer, some mindblock holds back.


Wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!
They will screw up the budget, and probably run up to RM400-500 Billion.
Say RM400billion to be splitted by 25 million people, that is our population, each of us should get RM16,000. I think we split the money. At least it is for sure to be in our pockets!!!!!!!
P.S Is there any channel to bring up this to Pak Lah??

Read this : http://www.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2006/4/1/nation/13843446&sec=nation

"Abdullah kept his eyes on the text of his speech and when he looked up after he finished, he wiped his eyes."

Is he under tremendous pressure to deliver the MP9 ?

Or the result has been predicted

What does his body language imply ?

So the fun starts? Fun as in paying for the Mahathir years of easy money, no open tender, no accountability, no transparency?

I am guessing, but perhaps Pak Lah felt the enormity of the burden to try to heal the damage wrought by his precessor?

A burden which is on-going, made worse by the fact that his Cabinet is still heavily dominated by Dr M era ministers?

Made worse also by the culture of cronyism established in the previous years and now deeply entrenched?

And now, allegations against his own immediate family and son-in-law?

Pak Lah still has my confidence and trust, and I personally think he meant and felt his closing prayer. I certainly do not evny the massive load on his shoulders.

In New Zealand, effective April 1; a family on $34,486 a year or lower will RECEIVE from the GOVERMENT $179 a week; three children $226 and four at $288 a week! It is expected that 350,000 families will benifit. With the VAST RESOURCES that Malaysia have, give some back to the people lah.

By the way, that is NOT an April Fool Joke ;-)

cyleow:

personally I think giving money to the people is a scam. 20% tax on 34,500 dollars is already about 6700 dollars, translates to about 130 dollars per week. I feel it is like taking from your right pocket and putting it back to your left pocket. Not forgetting GST, super tax and other unseen taxes.

anyway that's different story.

Back to topic. It is worrying that our economy is being proped up by borrowing money. I don't have a problem if it is 10 or 20% of our GDP. The problem now is how are we going to pay back the money? intrest per year alone will cost us at least 10 billion alone.

At least in US we know why their borrowing is growing larger (war, trading with china, oil and etc). Why are we borrowing that much money?

Najib and the other ministers said all malaysians have to work together to achieve the 9MP.
I say we have been working all along from day one. It is when the government and those in power are stopping to squander the tax-payers money? Besides who has been the biggest contributors? Yet they say some are playing the race card in parliament. It's those corrupted up there who are robbing from the people.
When the shit hits the ceiling they point their fingers and blame the biggest contributors. And those who do not know the facts are led blindly to agree.

Ha ha ha.... I know I will get a response like that, my friend Nu+Z whoever u are; I know how u feel..personally I think the Gov is loosing popularity and the interest free student loan and this family sweetener is to make sure they stay in power next term. But then my friend you are prob one of then that vote themback into power, so STOP COMPLAINING ;-)

I guess SY and Apollo Market are surprised!

cyleow...

lol.. i'm across the tasman sea. oh and i am not eligible to vote either.. ;)

Guys AND Dolls,

TANSTAAFL - There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch. Period.

You don't have to spend an arm and a leg to do an MBA to arrive at this home truth. We spend our ways to prop up the necessary growth figures to 'achieve' developed nation status.Remember how a state was recently proclaimed 'developed' by myopically zooming in on certain economic figures? The path to destruction is already set. Run up the debts so that the next generation carry the burden. SELL humongously overpriced but safety questionable cars to your population, so that THEY pledge their future earnings to acquire what is supposed to be a basic necessARY mode of transport (equivalent to 3 years' worth of earnings, money that is better spent for the kids' education for example). You don't have to go far to see the consequences and glimse a possible future of this country by 2020. It is just across the sea, a country whose major export to the world is menial but educated workers.
How will I know if a country is finally developed? Simple really. When you finally will not see a fleet of underpaid cops clearing the clogged highways so that some VVIP thinks he/she is above the rest and is entitled the right of way. Do you see that in the future?NO?? Start worrying!

A fiscal policy of incurring budget deficits to stimulate weak economy is unsustainable. Looking at the projected debt of RM 351.3 bil, a rough calculation will give a debt of RM 134,047 per head of the population. We do not need a math genius to work out that we are in more than a bit of a jam. Raids on EPF is not wht I call a plan.
Handouts to the old and infirm is commendable. (sorry cy!)Indiscriminate handouts will breed a society of loafers, lazy bums and scroungers. Prudent fiscal policy is required.

Folks

The foreign press took a different spin on Malaysia 9th Malaysia Plan, hidden in the report and not reported in Malaysian's mainstream media.

Malaysia tightens pro-Malay policy in $54 billion plan to spur growth.

http://newscompass.blogspot.com/2006/04/malaysia-pro-malay-policies-to.html

Malaysian PM stands by the redistribution of ethnic wealth
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/bizfocus/archives/2006/04/02/2003300574

Malaysia faces tough task to achieve developed status by 2020

http://www.todayonline.com/articles/110493.asp

Malaysia Unveils $54B Development Plan
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/03/31/ap/business/mainD8GMHE4G6.shtml


The National Service scheme (?scam) was never budgeted for . Where did they come up with the RM 500 million? Borrowed?

Remember, heavy debt ratio vs GDP is one of the factor that trigger the economy crisis in 1997.

When Jeff mentioned media will give the KPI, milestones, etc; I can sense the sarcasm. ;)

BTW, Penang don't deserve PORR, second bridge and a mass transit. All this project will go into bankruptcy in less than 10 year and never solve the problem.

I must stress again, more road policies will never fix the traffics problem . Road can NEVER cater for ever increase car volume. If you throw 500 millions to build a urban bus system, the state people will yield the benefit ASAP.

I don't know why Malaysian are so obsess on building more road to serve the car, rather builiding a system to serve people.

INTERNET does not operate in a legal vacuum.
Read this before you post a comment in this blog!

Post a comment

(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)